China Reality Check: China's economy has made steady progress in the first quarter

In 2024, China’s first quarterly economic report will get off to a good start. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th showed that according to preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter was 29,629.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. How do you view China’s economic “report card” in the first quarter? How to continue development in the second quarter and where does development confidence come from?

"When observing the operation of China's economy, we must look at both the total volume and structure, as well as trends and potential. Judging from the characteristics of the current economic operation, while the overall economic volume remains stable, the structure is also constantly optimized, and consumption Demand and investment demand are also in the process of steady recovery. "Recently, Wei Qijia, director and researcher of the Industrial Economic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, said during a guest appearance on "China Economic Micro-Observation·Expert Talk" that my country's economic growth in the first quarter can be used. One keyword to summarize: making steady progress, which well summarizes the main characteristics of my country's economic performance in the first quarter.

Economic growth targets are key to boosting confidence. Wei Qijia said that looking forward to China's economic development throughout the year, he believes that through continued policy efforts, this year's economic growth target of about 5% is a goal that can be achieved with "a hard jump".

“The key depends on the trend and potential of China’s economy”

The growth of high-tech manufacturing industry is accelerating and market sales are growing steadily... Analyzing the economic data of the first quarter, China's economic growth rate is generally higher than market expectations. China, which practices high-quality development, has delivered a dazzling "first quarter report".

Wei Qijia said that from the perspective of "stability", it is not easy for my country, as a very large economy, to achieve a GDP growth rate of 5.3% year-on-year on the basis of rising uncertainty in the external environment and a relatively high base last year. It is also an important manifestation of the steady operation of our country's economy.

From the perspective of "progress", investment in some high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries has maintained double-digit growth, and product output has also maintained a high year-on-year growth rate, reflecting the characteristics of structural optimization and improved quality and efficiency.

"The key depends on the trend and potential of China's economy." Wei Qijia said, for example, from the popularity of the "holiday economy", it can be seen that the current demand in the consumer sector is showing a steady and moderate rebound. With the introduction of various policies, this trend is expected to continue this year, and micro entities will further feel the warmth after the economy stabilizes.

Wei Qijia said that from a policy perspective, the policy guarantee is strong and the reserves are sufficient. Take the large-scale equipment upgrading and trade-in policy for consumer goods as an example. This policy is not limited to the trade-in of consumer goods, but aims to achieve a virtuous cycle of consumption and investment through the introduction of systematic policies.

"Ultimately, it will drive the growth of demand for consumer goods, and also promote companies to carry out technological transformation, optimize production processes, and produce better quality products." Wei Qijia further analyzed that, in general, this policy can form a positive interaction between consumption and investment, and also It will lay a good foundation for creating new economic growth points.

"The pursuit of both 'gold content' and 'green content'"

A closer look at the "report card" of my country's economy in the first quarter shows that energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 0.1% year-on-year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 4.5% year-on-year, semiconductors, 3D Printing also maintained high double-digit growth. What information does this data convey? What new signals were released?

"Behind each set of data, there is profound logic and practical support for action." Wei Qijia said that as the world's second largest economy, while my country's economy remains stable, there are still many things to note, including There are two aspects that stand out.

First, energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped year-on-year in the first quarter. Behind this slight decline is the country’s continued efforts to promote the green transformation of the industry. It can be said that my country's economic development not only pursues "gold content", but also pursues "green content".

The second is the growth of product output and investment-related indicators in high-tech manufacturing. This is the result of my country's long-term promotion of the development of the real economy and its emphasis on the transformation and upgrading of the real economy. In particular, our country is promoting the upgrading and transformation of traditional industries, increasing investment in technological transformation, and promoting the quality and expansion of strategic emerging industries.

"Focus on both short-term growth and mid- and long-term planning."

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the added value of the secondary industry was 10,984.6 billion yuan, an increase of 6.0%, which played a driving role in economic growth. Among them, the added value of the national industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year. Divided into three categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 1.6% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.7% year-on-year, and the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry increased by 6.9% year-on-year. The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 7.5% year-on-year, 2.6 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year.

"The rapid growth of industrial year-on-year data has played an important supporting role in the stable operation and steady improvement of GDP." Wei Qijia said that the real economy, especially the industrial category, is an important supporting force for the stable operation of the national economy, and relevant policies are also It plays an important role in promoting industrial transformation and upgrading and high-quality development.

Wei Qijia further said that from the perspective of the industrial sector, policies such as large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in focus on both short-term growth and mid- and long-term coordination, which have boosted the confidence of many industrial enterprises in their operations. Many companies are also taking advantage of favorable policies to arrange related production in advance, which will play a strong role in promoting the growth of industrial added value.

"From the perspective of economic cycle, consumption and investment in the service industry have maintained a good growth trend, which shows that consumer demand is recovering steadily." Wei Qijia believes that the steady growth of the service industry will also promote the increase in product demand. And further promote industrial development and achieve positive interaction between industries.

Wei Qijia also suggested that in the future, our country should adhere to quality first and efficiency first, seize favorable opportunities, and speed up the construction of a modern industrial system by focusing on enlarging the total scale, improving the industrial system, optimizing the industrial structure, and improving industrial resilience.

The "China's economic collapse theory" has collapsed again and again

At a time when global attention is focused, international political and business giants have set foot on Chinese soil, which makes people think about a question: when so many eyes and steps of the world are moving towards China, are those arguments about "China's economic collapse" still tenable?

Whether it is the various arguments in the Western media or the actual actions of international politicians and business leaders, they all show us an indisputable fact: China is at the center of the world stage.

Economic data is strong, China is still the engine of world economic growth!

Xie Feng, Chinese Ambassador to the United States, said that the "China's economic collapse theory" has collapsed again and again, and the "China's economic peak theory" has no factual basis. No matter it is a tariff war, a technology war, or a cognitive war, they cannot stop China's high-quality development.

中国经济起步平稳、稳中有进, 一季度增长5.3%

“观察中国经济的运行情况时，既要看总量，也要看结构，还要看趋势和潜力。从当前经济运行的特点看，经济总量保持稳定的同时，结构也在不断优化，消费需求、投资需求也在稳健恢复的过程当中。”近日，国家信息中心经济预测部产业经济研究室主任、研究员魏琪嘉做客《中国经济微观察·专家谈》时表示，我国一季度的经济增长可以用一个关键词来总结：稳中有进，这很好地概括了我国一季度经济运行的主要特征。

经济增长目标是提振信心的关键。魏琪嘉表示，展望全年中国经济发展态势，相信通过持续的政策发力，今年5%左右的经济增长目标是一个“奋力一跳”能够实现的目标。

“关键要看中国经济的趋势和潜力”

高技术制造业增长加快、市场销售稳定增长……透析一季度经济数据，中国经济增速普遍高于市场预期，践行高质量发展的中国交出一份亮眼的“一季报”。

魏琪嘉表示，从“稳”的角度看，我国作为超大规模经济体，在外部环境不确定性不断上升、去年基数相对较高的基础上，能够实现GDP增速同比增长5.3%实属不易，这也是我国经济稳健运行的重要体现。

从“进”的角度看，部分高技术制造业、高技术服务业的投资保持了两位数增长，产品产量也保持了较高同比增速，体现了结构优化、质效向好的特点。

“关键要看中国经济的趋势和潜力。”魏琪嘉表示，比如从“假日经济”的火热可以看出，当前消费领域的需求在呈现稳健温和回升的态势。随着各类政策的出台，这一趋势有望在今年得以延续，微观主体也将进一步感受到经济企稳之后的暖意。

魏琪嘉表示，从政策角度看，政策保障有力、储备充足。以大规模设备更新改造和消费品以旧换新政策为例，该政策并非局限于消费品的以旧换新，而是旨在通过出台具有系统性的政策，实现消费和投资的良性循环。

“最终它将带动消费品需求的增长，也能推动企业进行技术改造，优化生产工艺，生产质量更好的产品。”魏琪嘉进一步分析称，总体上，该政策能够形成消费和投资的良性互动，也将为打造新的经济增长点打下良好基础。

在全球目光聚焦的时刻，国际政商界巨头纷纷踏上中国的土地，不禁让人思考一个问题：当世界这么多的眼光和步伐都朝着中国移动，那些关于“中国经济崩溃”的论调还站得住脚吗？

不论是西方媒体上的种种论调，还是国际政要和商界领袖的实际行动，都在向我们展示一个不争的事实：中国，正处在世界舞台的中心。

经济数据强劲，中国依旧是世界经济增长引擎！

当我们深入观察中国的经济数据时，更能明显感受到中国经济的韧性和活力。根据国家统计局的数据，2023年第一季度，中国GDP同比增长5.3%，在全球经济总体复苏乏力的背景下，这一成绩尤为突出。